ARTICLES

04.05.2017

NORDIC SHORT REPORT | 2017 | WEEK 18

NAS short interest down 201bp last week –repeating last year’s “no SI before summer” pattern?
27.02.2017

SpareBank 1 Markets moves into asset managment

Asset management will be established as a new business unit in SpareBank 1 Markets. The new unit will be based on existing specialist environments in Trondheim and Tromsø.

SpareBank 1 Markets acquires Allegro Kapitalforvaltning in Trondheim and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Forvaltning in Tromsø from SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge respectively. The acquired companies will be merged and will spearhead SpareBank 1 Markets’ asset management business. The new business unit will have combined AUM of approximately 10 NOK billion.

18.01.2017

Nordic short report - Week 40 2016

NAS short interest down 52bp to 15.8

Conclusion
Unweighted average Nordic short interest (SI) up 11bp WoW to 4.2%

• Our new quantitative SI trading model indicate three buys and one sell among OBX shares
• Energy sector SI remains in low end of two-year band

19.12.2014

Seismic Sector report December 2014

And then there were none
No buy recommendations left in seismic
The sharp drop in oil price during second half 2014 has caused us to cut our 2015 demand forecasts for the seismic industry.
28.10.2014

Attractive niche banks

Attractive niche banks
Norwegian niche banks – Initiation of coverage and 3Q 2014 Preview

•Continued growth likely as consumer financepenetration increases
•High ROE adequate in raising capital
•Initiating coverage with BUY recommendation on all banks
•Bank Norwegian (BUY, NOK 30)
•Pareto Bank (BUY, NOK 1750)
•yA Bank (BUY, NOK 31)
•Bank 2 (BUY, NOK 5.50)



01.12.2014

Salmon farming

Key takeaways from the third quarter

•Farming regions
» Central Norway back on top as the best farming region . 
o Average NOK 8.6/kg in operational EBIT.
19.12.2014

Norwegian Banks - EPS and Roe loan loss sensitivities

EPS and ROE loan loss sensitivities
 
Conclusion
The 45% drop in oil price since June has significantly increased uncertainty regarding growth in the Norwegian economy over the next years and consensus expect a modest 1 -1.5% GDP growth in 2015.
02.01.2015

Offshore Support Vessel Weekly 51/2014

•Technip/Reach extends contract with Eidesvik’s large subsea newbuild from 110 to 180 days in 2015. Positive for EIOF.
27.04.2015

Nordic Bank 1Q15

No surprises in 1Q but lower WACC could lift shares further

Margin pressure to continue
… but other income will compensate. Nordea remains our Swedish favorite

12.10.2015

Norwegian niche banks 2Q15

Growth story better-than-expected 

Niche banks - 2Q 2015 Review - ROE to new peaks and continued growth in 2Q

Conclusion
More M&A likely but few signs of increased competition in margins yet
98% of yA Banks shareholders approved the sale to Swedish Resurs bank at the extraordinary general meeting on August 11th. Hence shareholders are expected to receive a NOK 55 liquidation dividend in October/November. On our post 2Q 15e estimates the offer imply a P/B of 3.0 and a P/E of 10. We view the offer as decent but our new post 2Q TP is NOK 70 indicate, although very theoretical now post acquisition, further upside. The “super profit” seen in the consumer segment will lure several new niche banks into entering the market but limited – if any - margin pressure is visible in the 2Q figures

29.01.2016

Nordic Short Report

Energy sector SI up again 

Nordic short report - Week 4 2016 – Another week with upswing in energy sector SI

Conclusion
Aggregated Nordic short interest (SI) up 16bp last week to 4.7%

02.01.2015

Offshore Support Vessel Weekly 50/2014

•New AHTS contracts for Farstad in Australia at flat dayrates. Firm contract coverage for 2015 up by 5%. Positive.
18.01.2017

Nordic Short Report - week 3 2017

Nordic short report - Week 3 2017 – NAS short interest up 442bp!

Conclusion

Unweighted average Nordic short interest (SI) was flattish last week at 3.8%
• Our quantitative SI trading model indicate 6 buy recommendations among the OBX shares
• Track record since model launch is 66.67% of bets in plus
• … while back testing last 2Y return 60% score of total bets
02.01.2015

Offshore Supply Vessel Weekly 49/2014

•Termination of Kara Sea contracts and cancellation of South Stream project could have a devastating effect on market balance in the 2015 North Sea spot market
01.12.2014

Offshore Support Vessel weekly report 48/14

Newsflow
Solstad signs contract with Chevron for Norce Endavour’s 2015 campaign offshore Thailand
»SOFF has received conf irmation from Chevron (Thailand) for the 2015 offshore installation campaign utilizing DLB "Norce Endeavour". The new contract will keep the vessel occupied for 110-120 days in 2015.
25.11.2014

Offshore Support Vessel weekly report 47/14

Newsflow

Weekly avg. AHTS spot rate down 32% to NOK 282,000 as utilization drops below 70%. Latest AHTS fixtures at just above NOK 110,000 according to IHS.

23.02.2015

Nordic Banks - 4Q Review

Nordic Banks - 4Q Review - Updated CET1 targets fuel dividend story

Conclusion

Changes post results:
SWED:     Neutral - TP up SEK 10 to SEK 200
SEB:        Neutral - TP down SEK 2 to SEK 98
Handelsbanken:   Neutral - TP up SEK 11 to SEK 391
Nordea:   BUY - TP up SEK 15 to SEK 120

13.11.2014

Offshore Support Vessels weekly report


Newsflow

•DESSC fleet status report for October 2014 slightly negative in our view
•Improved contract coverage for DESSC as the company secures BB charters   for Sea Swift and Sea Spear
•Bourbon Q3 revenues up by 5.7% y-o-y to EUR 495m
•Tidewater fiscal Q2/15 numbers roughly in line with consensus
•Solid Q3 report from Oceanteam Shipping (OTS)

Full report week 45/2014



08.12.2015

Norwegian Niche Banks 3Q 2015 Review

Norwegian niche banks - 3Q 2015 Review - Healthy top-line growth in 3Q

Conclusion
Healthy top-line growth in 3Q and we hike 16e avg. EPS +7.3% as niche banks continue to benefit from underlying growth and drop in deposit rates. We reiterate buy recommendation on all niche banks after 3Q15.
• Bank Norwegian (BUY, NOK 62)
• Pareto Bank (BUY, NOK 42)
• yA Bank (BUY, NOK 70)
• Bank 2 (BUY, NOK 5.50)

27.09.2016

Nordic short report - Week 40 2016

NAS short interest down 52bp to 15.8

Conclusion
Unweighted average Nordic short interest (SI) up 11bp WoW to 4.2%

• Our new quantitative SI trading model indicate three buys and one sell among OBX shares
• Energy sector SI remains in low end of two-year band